Number 10 | June 13, 2007
PKK Terrorism and Northern Iraq-2
The following is an excerpted version of an article published on June 8, 2007 by The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. For full article, please visit www.washingtoninstitute.org.
TURKISH TROOPS IN NORTHERN IRAQ?
By Soner Cagaptay and Ali Koknar
(…) The PKK has recently increased its attacks inside Turkey, including suicide bombings, killing more than eighty people since the beginning of 2007. Most of these attacks involve improvised explosive devices (IEDs) similar to those being used against U.S. troops in Iraq. Given the escalated PKK-related violence, how likely are Turkish incursions into Iraq at this stage?
The PKK launched a violent campaign against Turkey in 1984 using its bases in Syria. In 1991, following U.S. intervention in Iraq, Baghdad lost control over the Kurdish areas in the north, which came under the rule of two Iraqi Kurdish parties, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP). The PKK exploited the political uncertainty in northern Iraq to move into bases there and launch attacks on Turkey.
In response, Turkey resorted to "hot pursuit," an international legal concept that permits the security forces of one country to cross the border of another country in pursuit of fleeing criminals. During the 1990s, Turkey conducted twenty-nine crossborder incursions into Iraq to strike at the PKK. Some of these involved only air power, while others were combined-arms operations, including several that involved as many as 30,000 to 50,000 troops. These latter incursions lasted for months, penetrating more 80 kilometers into Iraqi territory. Aided by the Iraqi Kurds, the operations proved successful in crippling the PKK.
(…) Yet, the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq changed that picture. Turkey, which did not participate in the war, lost its ability to keep the PKK under check in northern Iraq (…) the PKK has found plenty of room to maneuver. The organization regrouped -- and changed its name -- resuming the armed struggle it had suspended after Ocalan's arrest [Abdullah Ocalan, the leader of the PKK, currently imprisoned in Turkey]. In due course, PKK violence has spiked. In 2006 alone, the group claimed to have killed close to 900 Turks in almost 500 attacks.
(…) These developments are testing the Turkish strategy, prevalent since 2002, of restraint toward the PKK. Yesterday's reported incursion of Turkish troops might be seen as a sign of this change. The incursion appears to have been a limited hot pursuit, involving a few infantry and special forces battalions supported by air power. It followed Turkish military build-up along the Iraqi border, as well as Turkish media reports of military planes flying reconnaissance missions over the area.
(…) Given U.S. troop commitments elsewhere in Iraq, Turkish authorities have realized that they cannot expect U.S. forces to do their job for them. And given the rising Turkish casualties, Ankara may not continue to take PKK attacks "on the chin" anymore. Defense Secretary Robert Gates and other high-ranking U.S. officials have asked Turkey not to invade northern Iraq, but Ankara's options extend beyond simply invading or doing nothing. Hot pursuit tactics, for example, might not draw active opposition from Washington -- or from Baghdad, for that matter -- as long as the troop numbers are limited (that is, less than a brigade) and do not go much deeper into Iraq than the existing Turkish FOBs.
This summer is likely to bring more PKK IED blasts in major Turkish cities, killing civilians and boosting the existing popular support for military incursions into Iraq. Although an invasion-size operation --such as the corps-level incursions of the 1990s -- would require civilian government approval and perhaps even a parliamentary mandate, (which is required by the Turkish constitution in order to send troops abroad), limited hot pursuits, such as the current ones, lie at the military's discretion. The bilateral agreement between Turkey and Iraq permitting hot pursuits up to five kilometers deep expired in 1988, but Turkish military lawyers seem to believe that a sixty-year-old treaty still provides legal grounds for deeper incursion. In a June 5 letter to the UN Security Council, Turkey proposed the establishment of a 30-kilometer cordon-sanitarie on the Iraqi side of the border in which Turkish troops would have the right of hot pursuit.
Further PKK violence will bring more Turkish incursions into Iraq. On May 30, the U.S. military relinquished military control over the northern Iraqi provinces of Dohuk, Irbil, and Sulaymaniya to the KDP and PUK. Since the U.S. military did not have a significant troop presence in these provinces to begin with, it was a largely symbolic move.
Hence, any Turkish incursions into Iraq will now take place in areas outside U.S. military control. On June 7, the KDP and PUK declared that they would not engage the PKK. Nevertheless, as in the 1990s -- when Iraqi Kurds allied with Turkey against the PKK -- it seems that KDP and PUK assistance is one of the ways to defuse the current situation.
Soner Cagaptay is a senior fellow and director of the Turkish Research Program at The Washington Institute. Ali Koknar is a Washington-based consultant specializing in counterterrorism and international organized crime.
